A WEEKLY REVIEW OF THE CROP NUTRIENTS MARKET
November 15, 2013
• NH3 application has started in all areas and we are seeing increased demand daily.
• Producers are indicating higher values for spring PPY NH3 when compared to Q4 values.
• International supply is flat; no major shutdowns are anticipated.
• NH3 trucks are freeing up as harvest is coming to an end and LP is not in such high demand.
• Urea purchasing has stopped due to bouncing prices; most are waiting until late Q4 to find the low.
• Traders who bought in on the run-up are having a very difficult time selling those tons now and making money.
• There are no major logistical issues at this time.
• Large demand is expected in wheat country, which could take a swath of supply out of the market.
• With imports lagging, supply will remain snug near-term.
• Allocation improvements at Port Neal and Ft. Dodge are still 30-45 days out, at best.
• Barge traffic is slowly improving, while rail tons currently remain 4-5 weeks behind.
• Three phosphate vessels are set to unload at the Gulf next week and at least two additional vessels are likely to land in late November to early December, meaning the majority of this product will be in place for spring fill business.
• Truck logistics will continue to be a struggle as we work through the balance of fall. As we get further into the thick of applications, trucks will continue to be in short supply and more expensive.
• Potash prices have been stable of late but global values continue to see pressure due to the BPC split & market pressures.
• Potash movement out of Canada has been brisk, as terminals are calling for second and third refills.
• Retail demand has increased over the past week and we anticipate movement will be similar to last year if weather allows.
• Acid pricing for the month of November remains flat and pricing looks to remain flat through the end of the year.
• AMS suppliers hope to keep pricing at its current level, but supply and demand will play a major role in this decision.
• The ATS market remained largely unchanged this week.