General Comments – all fertilizer markets are down dramatically compared to the same date in 2015. Reductions range from 25-30%. Doing the math on fertilizer versus current grain prices, values today are as good as we have seen for many years…even when corn was $7.00!
Fertilizer manufacturers are squeezed pretty tight on margins…it’s been a long time and they don’t like it. That said, they are cutting production and looking to ship overseas where their netbacks are better. When this happens, it adds firmness to the market and we are seeing some of it today on Potash and Phosphates.
Ammonia – current pricing is well below levels we were seeing last year, however, ammonia is competing with UAN and Urea for the acre and I see a better buying opportunity down the road. For growers that have storage they want to fill for spring of 2017, I would suggest sitting tight for the next 2 to 3 months.
UAN – 28% has dropped $50.00 from late spring values. It is a pretty good buy today. I would encourage you to fill. I know pricing dropped after fall fill last year but we are at much lower values this year. Could we see additional weakness? Possibly, but there is always upside risk as well.
Urea – this product is down over $100.00 per ton year over year. Pricing of late has strengthened $5.00 to $10.00. This is more so to keep in line with world values. Inventories today across the country are pretty low. We don’t see a lot of strength in the coming months unless we have a major production plant go down.
Potash – potash is also down over $100.00 since last fall. Producers have cut production and imports are down more than expected. This has created tight supplies. Pricing has firmed $10.00 over the last week or so. You could see the market firm a little bit more going into fall season. Over the long haul I don’t expect to see large price increases.
Phosphates – phosphate supply is also a little tight at this point. Pricing is down considerably but firming. We could see some softer prices but not until after the fall season.
Summary – Fertilizer is probably the best value of any crop input today. That said, we are dealing with declining corn and soybean prices. It is wise to be enrolled into Nourish 360 to make the most economical decision in managing nutrients. It’s about producing more bushels while improving efficiency!
To create a custom plan with Nourish 360 and determine the best points to make your fertilizer purchase, contact any of our Novus Ag Associate Partners.